Atletico Madrid is predicted to finish 22nd in the Champions League league phase by Opta's supercomputer. The analysis, published on Monday by La Vanguardia Deportes, gives the red-and-white side a minimal 0.60% probability of winning the continental title. Currently, Atletico sits sixth in the La Liga standings, with 7 points from four games and a record of two wins, one draw, and one loss.
What does the supercomputer predict for Atletico?
Opta's supercomputer projection, made before the start of the Champions League season, places Atletico Madrid in twenty-second position in the tournament's new league phase. This placement would, however, allow them to access the preliminary knockout round, reserved for clubs ranked between ninth and twenty-fourth. Diego Simeone's team squeezes 'by little' into that bracket, according to the report. With 7 goals scored and 6 conceded in La Liga, offensive and defensive output will be key to improving these projections in reality.
How are the other Spanish teams viewed?
The analysis identifies four Spanish clubs in the prediction. FC Barcelona, managed by Hansi Flick, appears as the best placed in fourth, with a 6.97% chance of winning the Champions League. Jose Mourinho's Real Madrid sits seventh, with a 5.13% probability of lifting the trophy. Both Villarreal and Real Betis are projected outside the top 24, which would mean direct elimination, with win probabilities of 0.26% and 0.17% respectively. Atletico, therefore, would be the third Spanish team in the projected ranking, though far from the top two.
Who are the big favourites?
The supercomputer points to Arsenal and Bayern Munich as the two main title contenders. The London side has a 21.18% probability of winning the Champions League, while the German Bayern reaches 19.90%. Manchester City completes the favourites' podium. Barcelona is the fourth team with the best odds (6.97%), ahead of PSG (7.73%) and Liverpool, who occupies fifth place in the league phase. Inter Milan closes the European top 8 according to this projection.
What is the team's current context?
Atletico faces this European season from a position of some deficit in the domestic league, five points behind the leader, Barcelona. Their next commitment is a trip to San Sebastian to face Real Sociedad, fourteenth in the table, on September 13th. This match, which you can check on our fixtures page, will be a good benchmark before the Champions League. The squad, detailed on our squad page, needs to find greater consistency. Their progress in the La Liga standings will be a clear indicator of their ability to defy predictions like Opta's supercomputer.
